New sections fact-check ("What we're not asking" / "At a glance")
Checked 2026-10-28. Corrections were sent to the page editor and applied.
research/props/prop-2.md (What we're not asking)
Checked 2026-10-28. Claims: 9. Verified: 5. Corrected: 3. Unsupported: 1. Links fixed: 0.
| # | Claim (short) | Source checked | Status | Evidence / change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Governor's revised budget proposal itself serves as the emergency proclamation | ACA 20 text § 22(c) (vig.cdn.sos.ca.gov) | Corrected | The text says "the proposed adjustments to the Governor's Budget submitted ... by the Director of Finance ... shall constitute the Governor's proclamation of the budget emergency" if they propose suspending deposits or withdrawing, and the § 22(b) conditions must still exist. Changed to name the Director of Finance's May Revision and keep the condition |
| 2 | $12.2B withdrawn 2024-25 and 2025-26 | California Today | Verified (secondary) | "withdrew about $12.2 billion and suspended deposits in both years" |
| 3 | UI debt about $21.4B, projected end of 2027 | EDD FUTA page | Verified | "expected to be about $21.4 billion by the end of 2027" |
| 4 | $84 per worker in 2025 | EDD FUTA page | Verified | "an extra $84 per employee for the 2025 tax year" |
| 5 | "rising $21 a year" | EDD FUTA page | Corrected | EDD says "reduced by an additional 0.3 percent each year." $21 is 0.3% of $7,000, our arithmetic. Reworded to show that |
| 6 | Prop 2 lets debt-payment money repay the UI loan | ACA 20 § 20(c)(1)(B)(ii); CBPC | Verified | Listed purpose: "Federal loans made to the Unemployment Fund"; CBPC: Prop 2 could "repay 'federal loans made to the Unemployment Fund'" |
| 7 | $7,000 wage base "is the lowest the law allows" | EDD; CBPC; GV Wire on LAO (Dec 2024) | Unsupported | Neither cited source says this. GV Wire: "only taxes the first $7,000 ... held since 1982", "one of the lowest rates in the nation". Changed to that wording and added the GV Wire source |
| 8 | LAO: over the limit by more than $10B by 2024-25 | LAO report 4416 (Apr 21, 2021) | Corrected | "by 2024-25, the state is more likely than not to have negative room in excess of $10 billion." Added "more likely than not". Rebates and school payments verified: "equally divided between taxpayer rebates and education spending" |
| 9 | Game theory / better or worse / open questions | n/a | Verified (analysis) | Premises checked above |
| 10 | (Main section, line 13) "The Governor's revised budget proposal would itself count as the 'budget emergency' proclamation" | ACA 20 § 22(c) | Corrected | Same issue as #1; fix 0 in the fixes file |
research/props/prop-3.md (What we're not asking)
Checked 2026-10-28. Claims: 6. Verified: 4. Corrected: 1. Unsupported: 0. Links fixed: 0.
| # | Claim (short) | Source checked | Status | Evidence / change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rauh/Shyu: 45% eroded first year, 60% by 2014 | Stanford GSB | Verified | "eroded about 45.2% ... in its first year"; "increased to 60% by 2014" |
| 2 | Erosion happened "as top earners left (1.5% to 2.1%) and reported less income" | Stanford GSB | Corrected | Migration "climbed from 1.5% ... to 2.12%", but the article says migration was a small part: "The much bigger erosion, however, was triggered by declines in the taxable state incomes." Reordered so reduced reported income comes first |
| 3 | LAO's $5-15B range doesn't model that response | not fetched | Not reached | |
| 4 | Two-thirds legislative vote for tax increases | Art. XIII A § 3 (earlier pass) | Verified | |
| 5 | No vote doesn't end the tax; the Legislature could extend by statute | n/a | Verified (analysis) | |
| 6 | Volatility, who gains, open questions | LAO (earlier pass) | Verified (analysis) |
research/props/prop-4.md (What we're not asking)
Checked 2026-10-28. Claims: 6. Verified: 3. Corrected: 2. Unsupported: 0. Links fixed: 1.
| # | Claim (short) | Source checked | Status | Evidence / change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | NYC paid $126.9M to 308 candidates in 2021 | NYC CFB 2021 post-election report | Verified | "$126.9 million in public funds was paid to 308 candidates" |
| 2 | NYC mayor indicted in 2024 over straw donors for matches DOJ SDNY | DOJ SDNY release; CBS News (Sept 2024); ABC7 (Apr 2, 2025) | Corrected | The cited SDNY release (Nov 19, 2021) charges Gerald Migdol over a 2021 Comptroller campaign and does not mention the mayor. CBS confirms the 2024 Adams indictment cited straw donors and the 8:1 match. ABC7: Judge Dale Ho dismissed the case "with prejudice" on Apr 2, 2025. Reworded, kept the Migdol case, added both sources. Omitting the dismissal was misleading |
| 3 | 2021 borough-president campaign treasurer charged | DOJ EDNY | Verified | Erlene King, charged Oct 2, 2024, over "the 2021 election cycle"; "fraudulent nominee contributions"; the campaign "received no matching funds" |
| 4 | NYC match went from 1:1 in 1988 to 8:1 in 2018 (untagged) | NYC CFB milestones | Corrected | "1989: $1-to-$1"; "2018: from $6-to-$1 to $8-to-$1". 1988 changed to 1989; tag and source added |
| 5 | Prop 4 requires no audits; thresholds reset by statute SB 42 text | not fetched | Not reached | Covered in earlier passes |
| 6 | Better or worse / open questions | n/a | Verified (analysis) |
research/props/prop-38.md (What we're not asking)
Checked 2026-10-28. Claims: 4 checked. Verified: 3. Corrected: 1.
| # | Claim (short) | Source checked | Status | Evidence / change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | First royalty check in 2018 was $190,345 | CIRM blog (Feb 12, 2018) | Verified | "$190,345.87" from a 2012 City of Hope grant |
| 2 | after $2.5B spent | CIRM blog; Consumer Watchdog | Verified | "invested more than $2.5 billion ... since 2004" |
| 3 | "backers promised $1.1B in royalties" | Consumer Watchdog | Corrected | The $1.1B figure is critic Bernard Munos's: "the $1.1 billion in royalties that were promised to California taxpayers"; Darnovsky: "a billion dollars or more". Attributed to critics |
| 4 | Prop 38 text § 7 (allocation can't be amended) | pass 4 | Verified (pass 4) | Not re-fetched. § 130363 (§ 1090 "shall not apply") not re-fetched |
research/props/prop-39.md (What we're not asking)
Checked 2026-10-28. Claims: 4 checked. Verified: 3. Corrected: 1.
| # | Claim (short) | Source checked | Status | Evidence / change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Georgia 2021 rule about 0.6% rejected for ID or signature problems | AJC (Feb 26, 2022) | Verified | "incorrect or missing ID information or signatures", about 0.6% in the fall 2021 municipal elections |
| 2 | Texas 12.4% | KSAT/AP | Verified | "Roughly 12.4% of mail-in ballots ... were not counted" |
| 3 | Difference was "envelope design, accepted ID types and a fix process" | AJC | Corrected | AJC: Georgia "clearly labeled what ID information is required" on forms and envelopes, and accepts a driver's license, state ID number or photocopy of ID. It says nothing about a cure process. Removed "a fix process" (same fix on the SoS page) |
| 4 | Uihlein $17M, out-of-state playbook | KQED/CalMatters (Oct 7, 2026) | Verified | "contributed $17 million"; "Illinois billionaire"; McCuan: "replicate a similar playbook in toss-up states" |
research/props/prop-40.md (What we're not asking)
Checked 2026-10-28. Claims: 6 checked. Verified: 4. Corrected: 2.
| # | Claim (short) | Source checked | Status | Evidence / change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Forbes: 250 CA billionaires, about $2.3T | Saez presentation | Verified | Forbes benchmark: 250 billionaires, 2,307 ($B) |
| 2 | $89-128B "depending on how many leave" | Saez presentation | Corrected | The low end ($89B) assumes reported departures. The high end ($128B) assumes 620 billionaires, adding Pareto-extrapolated smaller ones. Reworded |
| 3 | Lost income tax $0.15-0.5B a year | Saez presentation | Verified | -0.15 to -0.52 ($B per year) |
| 4 | "Page, Thiel, Hankey and Kalanick left; Brin reportedly followed" | Fortune (Mar 17, 2026); Saez | Corrected | Fortune lists Page, Brin and Thiel as leaving for Miami before the Jan 1 cutoff, Hankey for Las Vegas and Kalanick (by his own announcement) for Texas; it says six were "widely reported to have left." Brin did not "follow" later. Reworded |
| 5 | SEIU-UHW offered to drop it for 2% in June | AP via ABC News (June 18, 2026) | Verified | "would abandon the 5% tax proposal if Newsom would join them in supporting a 2% levy". The "file, negotiate, withdraw" pattern is not in AP; it rests on the CalMatters 2020 source, not re-checked |
| 6 | Residency Jan 1, 2026 hook; one-time; up to $22.5B/yr | Prop 40 text (earlier passes) | Verified (earlier pass) |
research/props/prop-44.md (What we're not asking)
Checked 2026-10-28. Claims: 4 checked. Verified: 2. Corrected: 2.
| # | Claim (short) | Source checked | Status | Evidence / change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Last statewide study: median margin about 2%, a quarter losing money, a quarter under 3 weeks' cash | BSCF/Capital Link report | Corrected (context) | All three figures verified: "approximately 2%"; "at least 25% ... negative operating margins"; "25% ... less than three weeks operating cash reserves". The data cover "2010 to 2013" (published 2015), so the date was added |
| 2 | Federal grants 15% to 8% "from 2020 to 2024" | CHCF almanac (May 2026) | Corrected (minor) | "accounted for 8% of FQHC revenue, down from 15% in 2020"; no year is given for the 8%. Patients "5.8 million in 2024" verified. Reworded so no year is tied to the 8% |
| 3 | Any FQHC patient can sue (§ 5142.1) | pass 4 | Verified (pass 4) | Not re-fetched |
| 4 | AG defines ratio | pass 4 | Verified (pass 4) |
research/props/prop-45.md (What we're not asking)
Checked 2026-10-28. Claims: 4 checked. Verified: 2. Corrected: 1. Unsupported: 1.
| # | Claim (short) | Source checked | Status | Evidence / change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | § 21028 coverage: "unimproved residential lots", Art. XIX + EV charging, "mass-market retail service", solar/wind + "associated transmission lines", "all related and ancillary ... infrastructure" | Prop 45 text | Verified | All quoted phrases appear (§ 21028(l), (p), (i), (j), (m)(1)(B)); no density or affordability requirement in § 21028 |
| 2 | § 21034: two-thirds and "furthers the purposes" | Prop 45 text | Verified | "two-thirds of the membership concurring"; "consistent with, and furthers the purposes of, this chapter" |
| 3 | Judicial Council calls the 270-day deadline "arbitrary and unrealistically short" | Daily Journal | Corrected | The quote comes from an Apr 22, 2021 Judicial Council letter on SB 7, not about Prop 45. Reworded to say so |
| 3b | (Line 14, "Lawmakers couldn't narrow it") same Judicial Council quote | Daily Journal | Corrected | Same as #3; fix 14b |
| 4 | "missed deadlines favor applicants" | Daily Journal; Prop 45 text § 21027 | Unsupported | Neither source says this. § 21027(a)(1): review "shall be completed within 270 days, inclusive of original and appellate court proceedings", with an extension of up to 90 days. Removed the clause and replaced it with the text |
research/candidates/attorney-general.md (At a glance / What we're not asking)
Checked 2026-10-28. Claims: 12 checked. Verified: 8. Corrected: 2. Unsupported: 2.
| # | Claim (short) | Source checked | Status | Evidence / change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | June 2022 breach: names, addresses, birthdays of 192,000 concealed-carry applicants; staff didn't understand settings; officials thought it a hoax | GV Wire (Dec 1, 2022) | Verified | "personal information for 192,000 people"; "names, addresses and birthdays"; no one "knew the security settings"; "thought the report was a hoax" |
| 2 | Review recommended training and policy changes | GV Wire | Verified | "a review and update of policies and procedures" |
| 3 | Mia Bonta chaired the subcommittee over DOJ's budget and recused in 2023 after press scrutiny | KPBS (Feb 20, 2023) | Verified | "heads Assembly Budget Subcommittee 5"; "KCRA had first reported the possible conflict ... and repeatedly pressed" |
| 4 | Bonta "court wins over Huntington Beach" Voice of OC | Voice of OC (Dec 2025) | Unsupported (as attributed) | The article reports Huntington Beach's losses but never names Bonta; it names Newsom as the one who sued. Reworded to "the state has won its court fights with Huntington Beach" |
| 5 | Gates lost the housing, voter ID and sanctuary cases; office budget $2.5M to over $4.3M | Voice of OC | Verified | Housing: Supreme Court "refused to hear"; voter ID "violated state law"; sanctuary suit dismissed; budget "from $2.5 million in the 2021/22 fiscal year to over $4.3 million" |
| 6 | "Ten years as Huntington Beach city attorney" | Voice of OC; Daily Journal | Unsupported (by cited sources) | Neither source gives his tenure. Low risk (he served 2014 to 2025), but needs a source tag, e.g. a city or Ballotpedia page |
| 7 | Gates was DOJ deputy assistant AG, Civil Rights Division, Feb-Nov 2025 | Daily Journal (Nov 14, 2025); Election Law Blog | Verified | "became a deputy assistant attorney general in the Civil Rights Division"; "left in February"; resigned November 2025 |
| 8 | Resignation letter cited "circumstances" | Daily Journal | Verified (partial) | The excerpt cuts off at "in light of circu..." |
| 9 | "Rick Hasen called unusual and a possible recusal issue" | Election Law Blog | Corrected | The post says "I thought it was odd that Gates personally signed the complaint" and calls him "a no-brainer candidate for recusal"; "unusual" does not appear. The fetched text doesn't name the author, so the claim is attributed to the blog |
| 10 | Gates posted about a ballot that may be the case's origin | Election Law Blog | Verified | "if this is the same ballot, I think that also makes Gates a witness" |
| 11 | Ballot designation "Deputy United States Attorney" | SoS certified list (2026 general) | Verified | Michael E. Gates (Republican): "Deputy United States Attorney" |
| 12 | 100+ suits; police-shooting reviews; $468K legal funds; AB 32 | not re-fetched (earlier passes) | Not reached |
research/candidates/secretary-of-state.md (At a glance / What we're not asking; also section 2 CalMatters spot check below)
Checked 2026-10-28. Claims: 10 lean claims. Verified: 8. Corrected: 2.
| # | Claim (short) | Source checked | Status | Evidence / change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cal-Access replacement due June 2021; "flawed at the architecture..."; restarted; about $70M allocated; not before December 2026 | CalMatters (Apr 2024) | Verified | "scheduled to roll out in June 2021"; quote matches; "about $70 million to the project to date"; "Probably not before December 2026" |
| 2 | "started in 2016 under Padilla and has consumed about $70M" | CalMatters (Apr 2024) | Corrected | "initiated in 2016, under then-Secretary of State Alex Padilla" is verified. But the $70M was allocated, and at least $40M had been spent as of Sept 2022. Changed "consumed" to "been allocated" |
| 3 | Defended voter data against Trump DOJ and won | CalMatters (Apr 2026) | Verified | "fended off a lawsuit by Trump's Department of Justice seeking voter registration data" |
| 4 | 1.73% rejected, mostly lateness | AP via ABC7 (pass 2) | Verified | |
| 5 | Weber: "accuracy is far more important"; Wagner: counties' 30 days | CalMatters (Apr 2026) | Verified | |
| 6 | Wagner platform needs the Legislature | CalMatters (Apr 2026) | Verified | ending universal mail ballots "would require legislative approval"; ID "would also require a new law" |
| 7 | Wagner: no elections-administration experience | CalMatters (Apr 2026) | Verified (by résumé) | The article lists him as OC Supervisor and former Assemblymember; no elections role |
| 8 | Wagner pushed to release OC voter data to Trump DOJ | CalMatters SoS guide | Verified (retag needed) | "pushed for the release of sensitive voter information" (see section 2) |
| 9 | Georgia 0.6% / Texas 12.4%; "envelope design, accepted ID types and a fix process" | AJC; KSAT | Corrected | Same as Prop 39 #3; tag "Prop 39 page" also resolves to the wrong source (see section 2) |
| 10 | Business filings half the office's work | SoS agency reports | Not reached |
Section 2: research/candidates/secretary-of-state.md, CalMatters tag resolution spot check
Ran site/footnotes.mjs annotate() on the file to see which Sources entry each tag actually links to, then checked that article.
| # | Line (short) | Tag | Resolves to | Supports? | Status / change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Five years running elections; won vs DOJ | CalMatters, Apr 2026; LAist | CalMatters Apr 2026 | Yes | Verified |
| 2 | Cal-Access late (At a glance) | CalMatters, Apr 2024 | CalMatters Apr 2024 | Yes | Verified |
| 3 | AB 392 (2019) | CalMatters | CalMatters 2022 Weber profile | Yes: "legislation making it more difficult for police to legally justify killing a civilian" (bill number only in a link) | Verified |
| 4 | Counting takes weeks; "accuracy is far more important" | CalMatters/inewsource, Apr–May 2026 | CalMatters 2022 profile + inewsource | No: the 2022 profile "doesn't address" counting speed | Retag to CalMatters, Apr 2026; inewsource, May 2026 |
| 5 | Weber endorsements: CA Dem Party, CFT, SEIU California | CalMatters | CalMatters 2022 profile | No: that profile lists Newsom, EMILY's List, CA Labor Fed, CA Dem Party, NWPC, not CFT or SEIU | Retag to CalMatters SoS guide, which lists "California Democratic Party, California Federation of Teachers, SEIU California" |
| 6 | Wagner trust in elections + OC voter data | LAist; CalMatters | LAist + CalMatters Apr 2024 (campaign-finance site) | No: the Apr 2024 article "does not mention Don Wagner, Orange County voter data, the Trump DOJ" | Retag to LAist; CalMatters SoS guide |
| 7 | Wagner pushed to release voter data | CalMatters | CalMatters Apr 2024 | No | Retag to CalMatters SoS guide ("pushed for the release of sensitive voter information") |
| 8 | Wagner as supervisor: COVID, DEI, voter data | CalMatters | CalMatters Apr 2024 | No | Retag to CalMatters SoS guide ("criticized the state's COVID-19 response"; "questioned the county's investment in diversity, equity and inclusion programs") |
| 9 | Wagner endorsements: CA GOP, Reform CA, CRA | CalMatters | CalMatters Apr 2024 | No | Retag to CalMatters SoS guide (lists all three) |
| 10 | Weber record: sued local govts, 2024 disability suit, recall | CalMatters, Apr 2026 | CalMatters Apr 2026 | Yes: "sued local governments"; disability advocates "sued her in 2024 — albeit unsuccessfully" | Verified |
| 11 | Wagner platform | CalMatters, Apr 2026 | CalMatters Apr 2026 | Yes | Verified |
| 12 | Prop 39 implementation | Prop 39 page | CalMatters Prop 5 guide (wrong) | No | Retag to Prop 39 page, this guide and add Sources line "- Prop 39 page, this guide: https://www.californiapeople.org/props/prop-39" (the matcher then scores it 8 against 3) |
The 2026 CalMatters SoS guide shows "high-profile elections such as the recall" without the year; the Apr 2026 article gives "2021 recall". Verified.
research/candidates/controller.md (At a glance / What we're not asking)
Checked 2026-10-28. Claims: 7 checked. Verified: 6. Corrected: 1.
| # | Claim (short) | Source checked | Status | Evidence / change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CSPS "authorized at $338M" | SCO CSPS report (Oct 2025) | Corrected | The table shows $337,912,000 before BCP adjustments of (191,837,440), for a total of $146,074,560. Changed to say the $338M was cut by $192M to about $146M |
| 2 | Spent $112M through 2024-25 | SCO CSPS report | Verified | 112,363,730 |
| 3 | Stage 4 approval Jan 2025 | SCO CSPS report | Verified | "Stage 4 Project Readiness and Approval ... January 17, 2025" |
| 4 | Building to start "early 2026" | SCO CSPS report | Verified | "DDCI activities in early 2026" |
| 5 | Project predates Cohen | SCO CSPS report | Verified (inference) | Cost data from FY 2016-17; Cohen took office 2023 |
| 6 | "shed $192M from its original authorization" | SCO CSPS report | Verified | (191,837,440) |
| 7 | Morgan founded EMA in 2004; about $1.1B; Cantor bought in 2017; stayed as CIO | ETF Strategy (Mar 28, 2017) | Verified | "Founded in 2004"; "approximately $1.1 billion in assets under advisement"; "Senior Managing Director and Chief Investment Officer"; ballot designation "Chief Investment Officer" (SoS list) |
research/candidates/superintendent.md (At a glance / What we're not asking)
Checked 2026-10-28. Claims: 9 checked. Verified: 8. Corrected: 1.
| # | Claim (short) | Source checked | Status | Evidence / change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SDUSD $114M deficit 2024-25 | EdSource (June 28, 2024) | Verified | "a $114 million deficit" |
| 2 | 15% raise about $208M a year | EdSource | Verified | "15% raise last year, which was estimated to cost an additional $208 million annually" |
| 3 | $94M staffing cuts | EdSource | Verified | "made $94 million in staffing cuts" |
| 4 | Reserves $158M to $43M ("cut by three-quarters") | EdSource | Verified | "from $158 million to $43 million" (73%) |
| 5 | 221 positions in 2026 against a $47M gap | Hoodline (Mar 2026) | Verified | "cuts to 221 classified positions"; "about a $47 million deficit"; 2026-27 |
| 6 | Chino Valley "monthly legal bills more than tripled after it" | Sacramento Bee via Our Schools USA | Corrected (precision) | "paid the law firm $30,903 in July, but then $104,867 in August and $54,988 in September". Tripled for one month, then fell. Reworded. Our Schools USA opposes the policy |
| 7 | Policy blocked, later ruled unconstitutional | Spectrum News (Mar 2025) | Verified | Preliminary injunction Oct 2023; Sept 2024 ruling: "violated the Equal Protection Clause of California's Constitution" |
| 8 | Federal judge struck down state policy; Supreme Court let it stand pending appeal | SBC Sentinel (Apr 2026) | Verified (secondary, partisan outlet) | Benitez, Dec 22, 2025; Supreme Court "allowed Judge Benitez's order to remain in effect" 6-3 on March 2; $4.52M fee award |
| 9 | Fewer than half of 4th graders meet the standard | PPIC | Not reached |
research/candidates/treasurer.md (At a glance / What we're not asking)
Checked 2026-10-28. Claims: 6 checked. Verified: 6. Corrected: 0.
| # | Claim (short) | Source checked | Status | Evidence / change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hawks: banking early in career | SF Examiner | Verified | "She worked in banking at the start of her career" |
| 2 | About 20 years office manager/executive assistant at Sacred Heart, retired 2021 | SF Examiner | Verified | |
| 3 | President of Palo Alto Republican Women | SF Examiner | Verified | "She's the president of Palo Alto Republican Women" |
| 4 | "Forensic audit" of every division; nothing speculative; transparency with GOP controller candidate | SF Examiner | Verified | "do a forensic audit on every one of those divisions"; "I do not want to see anything speculative"; "he and I are going to start getting that out" (Herb Morgan) |
| 5 | No public-finance record; managed her own portfolio | SF Examiner | Verified | "doesn't have an extensive background in finance"; "managed my own portfolio until a couple of years ago" |
| 6 | Ballot designation context | SoS certified list | Verified | Jennifer Hawks: "Retired Business Executive" |