Propositions 14

Our readLean yes, but demand accountability

• A subsidized apartment built with California tax credits cost about $630,000 per unit in 2023, up nearly 20% since 2019 after inflation. Terner Center, Jan 2026
• The state's share in this bond works out to roughly $180,000 per rental unit ($7.2B for up to 40,000 units, our math). The rest has to come from tax credits and local money. LAO

Our readLean yes

• The 2014 rainy day fund peaked near $23B, then the state pulled about $12.2B in 2024–25 and 2025–26 and suspended deposits. It fell to $11.5B, with $15.1B projected for 2026–27. California Today citing LAO, Senate Budget Committee
• The 10% cap only actually bound in 2 years (2022–23 and 2023–24). Without the cap, about $2B more would have been saved. LAO via California Today

Our readToss-up: weigh it carefully

• The "temporary" top-earner tax has raised more than $104B since 2012, currently $9–10B a year. California Budget & Policy Center, Apr 2026
• It was sold as temporary twice: 7 years in 2012 (Prop 30), then extended 12 years in 2016 (Prop 55). This measure removes the end date (now after 2030). LAO

Our readLean yes, low stakes

• It repeals the 1988 ban (Prop 73) on public campaign financing, but it creates no program. Any spending would be decided later by the state or a local government. LAO
• Only five California cities (including San Francisco and Berkeley) have public financing today. CalMatters

Our readLean yes

• The 2021 recall of Gov. Newsom cost taxpayers just over $200M ($174M counties, $26M state). He kept his job. AP via KPBS, Feb 2022
• Under today's rules, the replacement with the most votes wins, even without a majority. CalMatters explainer Supporters say a replacement can win with "far less than 50%"; the 2021 recall would have seated someone backed by about 28% of recall voters. Official Voter Guide arguments (In 2003, Schwarzenegger's 4.2M votes actually topped the 4.0M cast to keep Davis. SoS 2003 Statement of Vote; Wikipedia)

Our readLean no

• The Realtors put up $18.4M of the $33.6M for Yes. No one is funding the No side, and no ballot argument against was filed. SoS; Official Voter Guide
• The state's last down-payment program, Dream For All, ran through $300M in 11 days in 2023. It reached 2,564 buyers with an average loan of ~$112K. One loan officer estimated 30–50% could have bought without it. CalMatters via KQED, Apr 2023

Our readLean no

• About $4.2B is written for one unnamed nonprofit. UCLA confirms the only group that meets the criteria is CIII, which Michelson chairs and has given at least $120M since 2022. CalMatters, July 31, 2026
• As of Sept 2026, CIII had 3 employees (about 51 hires planned). Its building isn't due until at least late 2028 and is ~$100M short. CalMatters, Oct 20, 2026

Our readLean no

• The closest test case is Texas. When it began requiring an ID number on mail ballots in 2022, 12.4% of mail ballots were rejected in the March primary (1 in 8), up from under 1% in 2020. By November the rate fell to 2.7% as voters adjusted. KSAT/AP, Apr 2022; electionline
• California already rejects about 1.7% of mail ballots (148,241 in the June 2026 primary), mostly for arriving late. Brookings found about 4 fraud cases per 10 million mail ballots. AP via ABC7, July 2026

Our readLean no

• The sponsor, SEIU-UHW, has filed dozens of initiatives since 2012 and lost every statewide one it took to a vote: dialysis Props 8, 23 and 29 got 40%, 37% and 32%. Several others were dropped after deals with hospitals. Wikipedia; Ballotpedia
• In June 2026 the union offered to drop this measure for a 2% legislative deal. No deal happened. AP, June 18, 2026

Our readLean no

• It's funded by the people Prop 40 would tax: $58.4M for Yes through one committee, backed by Building a Better California (Brin $102M, Schmidt $40.2M, Doerr $40M across its measures). SoS; Ballotpedia News
• The clause that matters most right now voids state taxes enacted after Jan 1, 2026 that exempt their revenue from the spending limit. Prop 40 does exactly that, and if Prop 41 gets more votes, Prop 40 is nullified even if it passes. CalMatters guide; LAO

Our readToss-up: a permanent call

• $128.0M for Yes, one of the biggest Yes campaigns on the ballot (more than Prop 3's $74.8M or Prop 38's $71.3M), through one committee backed by Building a Better California (Brin $102M across its measures). SoS; Ballotpedia News
• Its Yes committee is named "Protect Retirement & Life Savings" SoS, but Prop 40 already generally excludes pensions and retirement accounts LAO Prop 40. The people who benefit most from a permanent wealth-tax ban are those whose wealth sits in unrealized gains.

Our readToss-up: a legislative deal

• It's a deal to avoid something bigger. Legislative Democrats put this on the ballot so the Howard Jarvis Taxpayers Association would drop a broader initiative. That one would have slashed real estate sales taxes statewide and revoked taxes that previously passed by a simple majority. CalMatters, Oct 2026; CalMatters guide
• Since a 2017 state Supreme Court ruling (Upland), citizen-initiated local special taxes have been able to pass by simple majority. LA's mansion tax (Measure ULA, 58% yes in 2022) has generated $1.4B since 2023, per the city, and Sonoma's 2024 wildfire sales tax passed with 62%. Neither would have passed under Prop 43's threshold. CalMatters, Oct 2026; LAO

Our readLean no

• The pay problem is real. In 2024 the CEOs of AltaMed and North East Medical Services each made about $1.95M. Three other clinic CEOs made $667K to $730K. IRS Form 990s via California Today
• None of the 7 clinics funding the No campaign meets 90%. Their combined ratio is 77.4% on $3.28B in revenue, and two are under 65%. Several ran 14–17% surpluses. Form 990s via California Today

Our readToss-up: real delays, very broad

• About 200 CEQA lawsuits are filed each year. Lawsuits filed in 2020 alone challenged about 48,000 approved housing units, and cases take 4–5 years to resolve. The study's lead author backs Prop 45. Holland & Knight, Sept 2026
• 64% of projects challenged on appeal (2013–2023) were infill in existing communities, and nearly 90% of challenged housing was infill. Holland & Knight